en.Wedoany.com Reported - The global platinum group elements (PGE) supply deficit continued to widen in 2026, as two major producers in Russia and Zimbabwe reported significant first-quarter production declines. Coupled with Zimbabwe's export ban on unprocessed critical minerals, this has placed further pressure on an already tight market.
Russia's Nornickel reported that first-quarter 2026 platinum production fell 26% year-on-year, palladium production dropped 18%, and copper output decreased by 10%. Full-year guidance indicates palladium and platinum production are expected to continue declining by 10%-11% and 5%-8%, respectively. Zimbabwe's Zimplats saw its combined production of six platinum group metals plummet 56% in the first quarter due to a prolonged smelter shutdown. South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe collectively account for approximately 90% of global primary PGE supply, with Nornickel alone contributing about 40% of global palladium production.
The Zimbabwean government announced an indefinite ban on the export of unprocessed critical minerals at the end of April, further constricting supply sources. Nick Smart, CEO of ValOre Metals, noted that the high geographic concentration of supply makes source diversification a structural necessity. "Geopolitical risks have already materialized, and advancing PGE projects in suitable development jurisdictions like Brazil will gain additional momentum."
The market supply-demand imbalance has persisted for years, with an annual deficit ranging between 500,000 and 700,000 ounces. Above-ground inventories have decreased by 42%, with a coverage period of less than five months. The automotive industry consumes approximately 40% of platinum and about 80% of palladium and rhodium, with hybrid vehicles requiring 10%-20% more PGEs than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Physical platinum investment in the Chinese market grew from near zero in 2019 to over 400,000 ounces in 2025. Platinum prices once reached an all-time high of $2,700 per ounce before retreating to around $2,000; palladium climbed to $2,000 before settling near $1,700.
ValOre Metals' Pedra Branca project, located in northeastern Brazil, currently holds an NI 43-101 inferred resource: 2.198 million ounces of combined platinum, palladium, and gold, with 63.568 million tonnes of ore at a grade of 1.08 g/t, spanning seven near-surface zones. Bioleaching tests incorporating a pre-treatment step showed platinum and palladium extraction rates of approximately 73% and 74%, respectively. The company plans to release a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) within the year to validate the project's economic viability. 2026 work also includes a resource update and M&A evaluations targeting potential near-term production.
Smart believes the market has not fully recognized the structural difficulty of bringing additional metal to market, stating, "PGE developers as a group are currently relatively undervalued." First-quarter data indicates that supply constraints have shifted from forecast to reality, but the translation of this into developer valuations remains to be seen.
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