en.Wedoany.com Reported - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for the global copper market in the first quarter of 2026 in its May 2026 monthly report, showing a global refined copper market surplus of approximately 396,000 metric tons, an increase from the surplus of about 135,000 metric tons in the same period of 2025.

In terms of mine production, global copper mine output was essentially flat in the first quarter of 2026, with copper concentrate production declining by 1.1% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) production increasing by 3.3%, offsetting each other. Ramp-up of project capacities in several countries brought additional output, but significant declines in copper concentrate production in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia dragged down global growth. Indonesia's Grasberg mine saw a 42% drop in copper concentrate production due to a mud overflow incident in September 2025. Chilean mine production fell by 5.8%, with increased output from Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca mines offset by declines at Spence, El Teniente, Escondida, and Los Pelambres mines. Mine production in the Democratic Republic of Congo grew by only 0.5%, with SX-EW output up about 10% but copper concentrate production down 36%, mainly impacted by reduced output at the Kamoa mine due to an earthquake in 2025. Peruvian copper mine production increased by 3.3%, supported by higher output from Antamina, Las Bambas, and Antapaccay mines, partially offsetting declines from Southern Peru Copper, Quellaveco, and Marcobre. Mongolian copper concentrate production surged by approximately 36%, driven by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project.

In the refined copper sector, global refined copper production grew by about 4.5% year-on-year, with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ore) up 3.8% and secondary production (from scrap) up 7.6%. China and the Democratic Republic of Congo together accounted for approximately 60% of global output, with their combined production estimated to have increased by 9%—China up 8.8% and the DRC up 10%. Excluding these two countries, global refined copper production declined by about 1.4%. Chilean refined copper output fell by 11.7%, with electrolytic copper production down 24% due to smelter operational constraints and maintenance, and electrowon copper production down 5.7%. Production in Asia (excluding China) decreased by 4%, mainly due to reduced output in Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Indian production grew by 25%, benefiting from improved operating capacity utilization and the ramp-up of the Adani smelter.

On the usage side, global apparent refined copper usage grew by 0.8%. China's apparent demand was essentially flat, despite a 40% decline in net refined copper imports; China currently accounts for about 58% of total global refined copper usage. Usage in the rest of the world is estimated to have increased by 1.7%.

Supply-demand balance data indicates that the global refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage, was a surplus of approximately 396,000 metric tons in the first quarter of 2026, adjusted to a surplus of about 386,000 metric tons after accounting for estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse stocks. In the first three months of 2026, Chinese bonded warehouse stocks decreased by approximately 10,000 metric tons from end-2025 levels. As of the end of April 2026, total copper stocks on major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) reached 1,148,760 metric tons, the highest since January 2003, an increase of 404,648 metric tons or 55% from the end of December 2025. This included increases of 253,350 metric tons on the LME, 46,683 metric tons on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and 104,615 metric tons on COMEX. The average LME spot copper price in April was $12,891.38 per metric ton, up 3% from the March average of $12,498.98 per metric ton. The high and low copper prices in 2026 were $14,097 per metric ton (May 13) and $11,826 per metric ton (March 19), respectively, with a year-to-date average price of $12,947.22 per metric ton, up 30% from the 2025 annual average.

Note: Apparent usage is calculated using relevant indicators; the refined copper balance is production minus usage; data is seasonally adjusted; the global refined copper balance is also adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse stocks.

This article is compiled by Wedoany. All AI citations must indicate the source as "Wedoany". If there is any infringement or other issues, please notify us promptly, and we will modify or delete it accordingly. Email: news@wedoany.com