Wedoany.com Report-May 4, US soybean oil exports have surged in the 2024-25 marketing year, reaching 945,140 tonnes by April 3, a 976% increase from 87,844 tonnes the previous year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Weekly sales averaged 30,300 tonnes, up 1,277% from 2,200 tonnes, with key buyers including Colombia, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Guatemala, and India, which purchased 128,800 tonnes. A USDA official noted: “In its April 10 WASDE, the USDA forecast 2024-25 soybean oil exports at 2.3 billion pounds (1.04 billion kg), up 283% from its original forecast of 600 million pounds.”

Competitive pricing has driven this demand. Cash soybean oil prices in Decatur, Illinois, averaged 43.5¢ per pound, 17% lower than last year’s 52.5¢, per Sosland Publishing Co. A weaker US dollar, down 9% since January, further enhanced export competitiveness. Meanwhile, palm oil prices hit a two-year high, carrying a $160-per-tonne premium over soybean oil, shifting global demand to the US. The USDA’s March Oilseeds report stated: “The price of US soybean oil by early March had transitioned from the most expensive edible oil on the global export market to the least expensive in a one-year period.”

Global market dynamics also supported US exports. Indonesia raised its palm oil export levy to 10% in December, while Indonesia and Brazil expanded biodiesel programs, reducing their export capacities. A market analyst commented: “Several countries adopted policies that either strengthened their domestic demand for vegetable oils or limited their ability to export it, both of which proved advantageous for US exports.”

Domestically, soybean oil prices gained strength from biofuel demand. In early April, a coalition of oil and biofuel producers proposed that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set 2026 biomass diesel blending mandates at 5.25 billion gallons, 57% higher than the current 3.35 billion gallons. A Czarnkow report noted: “True bull markets emerge when there is a perception of demand significantly exceeding supply, and this becomes evident when inventories start to sharply contract.” The USDA’s April WASDE reduced 2025 soybean oil carryover to 1.45 billion pounds, the lowest in over a decade.

Despite near-record 2024 soybean production, bullish fundamentals, including export demand and biofuel prospects, have kept soybean oil futures resilient, bouncing back from 40¢ per pound. With 2.1 billion pounds already committed to exports and 23 weeks left in the marketing year, the USDA may further raise its 2.3-billion-pound forecast, signaling robust global demand for US soybean oil.