en.Wedoany.com Reported - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its oil production forecast for Russia for 2026 and 2027 in its latest monthly oil market report, citing that ongoing drone attacks by Ukraine have weakened Russia's production potential. The IEA stated that strikes on refineries, storage facilities, and transport infrastructure have led to a weaker production outlook, prompting the downward revision of supply expectations.

The report noted that Russia's average crude oil production in 2025 was 9.2 million barrels per day. According to the adjusted forecast, Russia's oil production in 2026 is projected at 8.9 million barrels per day, a downward revision of 85,000 barrels per day from the previous estimate; for 2027, production is forecast at 8.8 million barrels per day, a downward revision of 150,000 barrels per day. Over the entire forecast period, Russia's average production is 8.8 million barrels per day.

According to the IEA's estimate of OPEC+ supply, Russia's crude oil production in June increased to 8.86 million barrels per day from 8.74 million barrels per day in May. However, this figure is 910,000 barrels per day lower than Russia's implied production target under the OPEC+ framework (9.76 million barrels per day).

In recent months, Russia's crude oil exports have increased due to a domestic fuel crisis caused by Ukraine's efforts to paralyze refineries, as well as limited domestic storage capacity. Ukraine has expanded its offensive, targeting fuel supply routes and vessels to weaken Russia's supply, while continuing to strike refineries and force them to shut down. After weeks of attempts by regional authorities to downplay the issue, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged fuel supply problems two weeks ago. Following a temporary ban on gasoline and aviation fuel exports, Putin stated that a comprehensive ban on diesel exports was under consideration. As of Wednesday this week, this diesel export ban has become a reality.