en.Wedoany.com Reported - Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday it expects Brent crude prices to trade in a range of $80 to $90 per barrel until a new US-Iran nuclear deal is confirmed or there is a major escalation in the conflict between the two sides.

Goldman Sachs estimates the fair value of spot Brent crude at around $80 per barrel, indicating that despite ongoing uncertainty over Middle East oil supplies, the market is currently pricing in only a modest risk premium. On Tuesday, Brent crude was trading near $85 per barrel, with conflicting signals from US and Iranian negotiations over ending the five-month war leaving the market uncertain. Earlier, Brent had pulled back to the low-to-mid $80s per barrel after the US delayed its strike plans against Iran and reports emerged of progress in talks over managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but Goldman Sachs noted that the physical oil market is still tightening.

Goldman Sachs estimates that global visible oil inventories have declined by an average of 6.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, driven by reduced flows from the Gulf and Red Sea, lower Russian exports, and stronger Asian imports. Based on seven-day moving average data, the bank estimates that Gulf oil exports have fallen to about 36% of pre-war levels, compared with nearly 80% in early July. Loaded tanker capacity in the Red Sea has dropped by 22% since the Iran-backed Houthis announced a blockade.

Goldman Sachs also estimates that Saudi oil exports are down 2.4 million barrels per day year-on-year, although the increasing diversion of oil shipments via Egypt's SUMED pipeline has partially offset the disruption to Red Sea routes. Russian crude supply has also recently trended lower, with Russian crude and condensate exports down 1.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, and shipments running well below normal levels amid repeated interruptions to loading at the Black Sea CPC terminal.