Wedoany.com Report-Nov. 5, TotalEnergies released its annual energy outlook report on Tuesday, projecting that global oil demand will continue to grow until 2040 before gradually declining. The company attributed this trend to ongoing energy security concerns and limited international coordination on emission reduction efforts. The 2025 outlook represents an upward revision from last year, influenced by policy shifts such as the partial rollback of green subsidies and the resumption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) project licenses in the United States, as well as increased coal plant development in Asia and a global slowdown in electric vehicle sales.

The TotalEnergies logo is pictured at the Hyvolution exhibition in Paris, France, January 28, 2025.

The report presents three potential scenarios for the global energy landscape: a baseline “current trends” path, a more ambitious “momentum” scenario, and a “rupture” scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement’s emission targets. During a press briefing, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said: “We can present this rupture scenario, but given the level of political fragmentation, the probability of its success is diminishing, even out of reach, because the international coordination required is not what we see today.”

Pouyanne stated that TotalEnergies chose not to specify the exact year of peak oil demand, citing internal debate among experts and the political sensitivity surrounding the issue. According to the report, oil demand could rise by nearly 5% to reach 108 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2040 under current trends, driven primarily by consumption growth in India, before declining to 98 million bpd by 2050. Under the company’s “momentum” scenario, oil demand is projected to drop to 79 million bpd by 2050, while the Paris-aligned “rupture” scenario envisions a sharper decline to 55 million bpd.

The report also examines the changing dynamics of global energy leadership. Pouyanne noted that while the United States remains a leading force in conventional oil and gas, China has emerged as a global leader in clean technology. He said: “China in 10 years has become the clean tech superpower, the new energy supermajor, and it’s spectacular; they must have an 80% market share in all the technologies we need tomorrow. It’s a reality. We can cry about it, or we can say it’s good for the planet and ask ourselves how to copy-paste.”

TotalEnergies projects that global natural gas demand will increase by about 10%, reaching 4,620 billion cubic meters by 2050, largely driven by buyers in Asia. Electricity consumption is forecast to nearly double to 57,140 terawatt hours by 2050, fueled by growth in the transportation and cooling sectors. The company also noted that data centers could account for 7% of global electricity demand by 2050, although Pouyanne cautioned that the evolving power requirements of artificial intelligence technologies remain difficult to predict.

Overall, the report highlights a prolonged period of high energy demand before a gradual transition toward cleaner sources, reflecting the challenges of balancing global energy needs with emission reduction goals.