Wedoany.com Report on Feb 3rd, US goods and services trade deficit widened significantly in November compared to the previous month, reaching $56.8 billion. This change was primarily driven by a 5% increase in imports and a 3.6% decrease in exports, reversing the previous trend of a narrowing trade deficit.
Specifically, increased imports of pharmaceuticals and decreased exports of gold were significant factors contributing to the widening trade deficit. Imports of capital goods such as computers and semiconductors also contributed to the overall import growth. The median estimate from a Bloomberg survey of economists was a $44 billion deficit, with the actual figure exceeding expectations.
After adjusting for inflation, the goods trade deficit widened to $87.1 billion in November, the highest level in four months. It is noteworthy that gold trade is typically excluded from the government's GDP calculations unless it is for industrial use.
The US Census Bureau stated on social media: "The nation's goods and services trade deficit increased from a revised $29.2 billion in October to $56.8 billion in November, as exports decreased and imports increased." The latest trade data will help economists refine their forecasts for fourth-quarter GDP.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast indicates that net exports will contribute 0.65 percentage points to fourth-quarter growth, with the current quarterly growth estimate at 4.2%. Despite the widening trade deficit in November, the overall trade deficit remains smaller than levels seen in recent years.
Regarding bilateral trade, the US trade deficit with China and with Canada widened in November, while the deficit with Mexico narrowed slightly. This trade report was delayed due to last year's federal government shutdown. Another report released on the same day showed that initial jobless claims remained largely stable last week. Continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level since September 2024 in the previous week. Fluctuations in trade data reflect changes in the international trade environment and have a continuous impact on economic indicators.
