Wedoany.com Report on Feb 26th, Argentina has launched its first lithium-specific reference price, a move that enhances market transparency and acknowledges the country's growing weight in the global lithium industry, coming at a time of production expansion and strong international demand.
The new FOB Argentina index marks a turning point for the sector. Previously, reference prices for lithium carbonate were primarily sourced from Asia, particularly China. With this new methodology, the market will gain data more closely aligned with the actual operations of domestic producing companies in Argentina.
As explained by Pedro Consoli, responsible for Latin American lithium pricing at Argus Media, the index is constructed based on the CIF China price for lithium carbonate and the maritime freight cost from Argentina to China. China was chosen as the reference because approximately 80% of Argentina's lithium carbonate exports go to that country, which is the world's primary consumer and processor of lithium ore.
The CIF China price is a key indicator for the global market. According to forecasts from Argus Consulting, the delivered price of lithium carbonate in China is expected to remain between USD 16.3 and 18.3 per kilogram in 2026. The market has shown signs of recovery; after hitting lows in June and July of last year, prices tripled by the end of 2025, reaching USD 22.65 per kilogram in January. This rebound has enhanced Argentina's attractiveness for investment in the Lithium Triangle, a region where Argentina shares dominance with Chile and Bolivia.
The numbers support Argentina's consolidation: production in 2024 was 71,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), with 131,000 tonnes projected for 2025 and an estimated 130,000 to 150,000 tonnes for 2026. With these figures, Argentina currently ranks as the world's fourth or fifth largest producer, behind Australia, Chile, and China, and competing with Zimbabwe. Global supply in 2026 is forecast to reach approximately 1.67 million tonnes LCE.
A major turning point will begin in 2028 with the start of production at the Rincón project, developed by Rio Tinto, adding 50,000 tonnes of annual production capacity. Approved under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), the project aims to attract capital for strategic development. Official projections indicate production could reach 418,000 tonnes LCE per year by 2030 and exceed 650,000 tonnes by 2035. If achieved, Argentina could surpass Chile to become the world's second-largest lithium producer by the mid-2030s, thereby altering the market balance.
Publishing a local FOB price offers advantages, including greater commercial transparency, a direct reference for export contracts, better financial planning for development projects, a technical tool for banks and investors, and institutional positioning for the country in the global market. This strengthens the negotiating power of local companies vis-à-vis international buyers and helps consolidate the credibility of the Argentine market.
The combination of high-quality geological resources, sustained production increases, regulatory incentives like RIGI, and its own price reference positions Argentina at a stage of industrial maturity. Lithium is a strategic commodity for batteries and electric mobility, and a central vector in the global energy transition. In this context, having a national FOB index represents a clear signal: Argentina has moved from being an emerging supplier to a structural player in the global market.
