According to an analysis by Corficolombiana, Colombia's mining and quarrying sector recorded an annual contraction of 5.6% in the third quarter of 2025, the largest decline on record (excluding pandemic factors), while forecasts for 2026 indicate an additional reduction of 2.9%. This downturn stems primarily from widespread weakness across major extractive subsectors, against a backdrop of declining extraction volumes, a lack of new exploration contracts, and an increased tax burden.
Specific data shows that from January to November 2025, oil production averaged 747,000 barrels per day, a 3.6% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Concurrently, crude oil export value fell 17% year-on-year in the third quarter, due to both lower prices and reduced volumes. This impact is also reflected in corporate performance: by the end of Q3 2025, Ecopetrol's trailing twelve-month EBITDA retreated 11% annually, while net profit declined 25%, occurring in an environment of reduced production, unfavorable prices, and increased fiscal pressure.
Natural gas production shows the most significant deterioration, with output recording a 17% decline as of November 2025, heightening alarms about energy security. Declining reserve declarations and falling commercialized production imply a greater reliance on imports to meet domestic demand. Forecasts suggest imports could exceed 20% of total supply, increasing the energy system's external exposure. The coal subsector also maintains a downward trend, with production falling 5.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 and an expected contraction nearing 12% in 2026, influenced by lower extraction levels, weak international demand, and pressures related to the energy transition.
For the coming year, the petroleum subsector is projected to face an additional 3.2% decline, driven by reduced exploration activity and an increased tax burden following the declaration of an economic emergency. This situation will constrain the sector's recovery, depress exports, and reduce the extractive industry's contribution to GDP growth, making the challenges facing Colombia's mining and energy sector particularly prominent in an environment where energy security and fiscal sustainability are becoming increasingly critical.
