en.Wedoany.com Reported - Kleantha Pillay, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing at Sibanye-Stillwater, stated at the company's Capital Markets Day event in Helsinki, Finland, on April 20th that as long as macroeconomic uncertainty remains high, investment and speculation are expected to continue supporting platinum group metal (PGM) prices. He noted that PGM supply and demand dynamics are driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, while the medium-term outlook is relatively positive.
Pillay elaborated: "From a medium to long-term perspective, primary supply is projected to decline from approximately 6.2 million ounces per year pre-pandemic in 2019 to 4.7 million ounces per year by 2034, reflecting a decline in South African supply due to underinvestment and operational challenges. Palladium supply is decreasing from 6.8 million ounces pre-pandemic to 5.6 million ounces per year by 2034 at a slightly slower pace, partly due to new projects coming online." Regarding secondary supply, he added: "Although recovery is expected, the pace of recovery is insufficient to offset the decline in primary supply. Total platinum supply is decreasing by 1.4% annually, and palladium by 0.6%."
On the demand side, Pillay reported: "As the largest demand segment, the outlook for catalytic vehicles (internal combustion engines and hybrids) remains strong over the next decade. Global forecasts have been revised downward since the peak of battery electric vehicle hype in 2023, reflecting more realistic growth rates. Relaxed European emission targets and the expiration of U.S. incentives support catalytic vehicle demand. Our internal view on battery electric vehicle growth is more moderate, expecting a 35% market share by 2034, lower than the market view of 42%."
Combining supply and demand perspectives, Sibanye-Stillwater's ten-year forecast includes two assumptions that differ from the market: a moderate view on battery vehicle market penetration and the belief that recycling will return to historical levels rather than higher ones. Pillay pointed out: "Our recycling view is 400,000 ounces lower than the market's, and our forecast does not include investment demand, although investment demand plays a role in balancing the market." Regarding platinum, a deficit is expected during the forecast period; regarding palladium, the market enters a moderate surplus after reaching balance around 2029.
Looking beyond 2034, Pillay outlined: "As battery electric vehicle growth continues and catalytic vehicle demand declines, no single application can fill the demand gap. We expect hydrogen and fuel cell demand to be slightly below 1 million ounces by 2034, and it will grow, but the industry needs to invest in new applications." The company is working with partners such as Heraeus on projects, for example, replacing iridium with ruthenium in electrolyzer catalysts and replacing platinum with palladium in glass fiber sleeves, to develop more cost-effective products and absorb supply.
Furthermore, Sibanye-Stillwater is collaborating with the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation on research and development of radioactive palladium isotopes for cancer treatment and has launched a three-year program with Valterra Platinum and Johnson Matthey to commercialize PGM-based applications. Pillay concluded: "Short-term PGM dynamics are driven by tariff threats and geopolitics, the medium-term outlook is positive, and we are optimistic about long-term hydrogen market growth, but continuous investment in new applications is needed to match supply and demand."
This article is compiled by Wedoany. All AI citations must indicate the source as "Wedoany". If there is any infringement or other issues, please notify us promptly, and we will modify or delete it accordingly. Email: news@wedoany.com
