en.Wedoany.com Reported - In the first half of 2026, Brazil's pulp exports fell 9% year-on-year to 10.3 million tons, with export revenue reaching $5.5 billion. In June alone, exports totaled 1.8 million tons, down 8% year-on-year, with revenue of $918 million for the month.

Luca Vello, pulp and paper analyst at Genial Investimentos, noted that the decline in export volumes was not due to weakening international demand for Brazilian fiber, but mainly attributed to the high comparison base formed by record production and exports in 2025, as well as planned maintenance shutdowns concentrated by producers in the first half of the year. He explained that the market had anticipated this, as factory maintenance schedules were known in advance, and exports had already shown weakness in the first quarter. The export reduction was more related to decreased domestic supply in Brazil rather than a loss of overseas buyers. He emphasized that there were no major logistics issues, and demand from China, Brazil's main pulp destination, remained strong, though short-fiber prices faced significant pressure.

International prices partially offset the impact of lower export volumes but were insufficient to fully compensate for the decline. According to the analyst, net prices for short-fiber pulp in the Chinese market mostly remained between $560 and $600 per ton in the first half, against a backdrop of global oversupply and weak demand from China's paper and tissue industries. Price and product mix could buffer some of the volume decline, but pulp prices did not rise significantly, resulting in a slightly negative environment for both prices and volumes.

For the second half of the year, with maintenance shutdowns ending and reduced pressure from the comparison base, exports are expected to improve year-on-year. Suzano's Cerrado project is gradually ramping up production, which will expand Brazil's short-fiber capacity and boost supply. The analyst assessed that export volumes are likely to recover, driven by the end of maintenance, new capacity, and more favorable seasonal factors for Asian demand; the challenge remains prices, which depend on the continued recovery of China's paper and tissue consumption. He pointed out that the decline in 2026 is essentially cyclical and does not represent a structural loss of competitiveness for Brazil's industry. Brazil remains the world's lowest-cost producer and will continue to meet global pulp demand growth, with the discussion focusing more on prices and costs rather than volumes.