en.Wedoany.com Reported - A survey conducted by consulting firm RealtyCorp for NeoFeed shows that São Paulo will add approximately 287,800 square meters of office inventory in the second half of the year, with 90% classified as A, AA, and AAA grade—the largest half-year supply addition in over a decade. This volume surpasses the historical peak of around 268,400 square meters in the second half of 2015, is approximately 2.9 times the delivery volume in the first half of 2025, and more than double the total for the full year.

Christofer Mariano, leasing director at RealtyCorp, noted that this concentrated delivery is not the result of recent overdevelopment, but rather of projects launched before the pandemic accelerating after the shock, leveraging the recovery in demand. He stated that developers adjusted project timelines according to market conditions after the pandemic, such as in the southern districts of Chácara Santo Antônio and Chucri Zaidan. These areas, with ample developable space, saw numerous projects planned between 2018 and 2019, which were later slowed due to rising vacancy rates caused by the pandemic and remote work. As the return-to-office trend resumed, projects restarted, and these two areas are expected to contribute approximately 156,600 square meters of new space, accounting for 54.4% of the total in the second half. Additionally, the Faria Lima area will add about 33,500 square meters to alleviate space shortages there; the Pinheiros area is expected to deliver around 59,800 square meters, primarily boutique projects, including the Cyrela Oscar Freire Corporate building, which houses Cyrela's headquarters and some Nubank employees.

Despite the massive new supply, strong market demand and positive absorption expectations are expected to keep vacancy rates stable. Mariano indicated that even with this new supply, vacancy rates will at least stabilize. The survey shows that if net absorption in the second half maintains the level of the first half (approximately 186,000 square meters), the vacancy rate in the premium market may only rise slightly from about 12.7% to near 13%. The market has recovered to pre-pandemic absorption levels of 400,000 to 500,000 square meters per year, enough to offset most of the new supply. The Chucri Zaidan area, previously plagued by high inventory, has seen faster absorption, with vacancy rates dropping from about 32% during the pandemic to around 12%. Some projects already have confirmed tenants upon delivery, which also helps maintain stable vacancy rates. Currently, the city still has over 500,000 square meters of premium office space under construction, along with multiple approved plots awaiting the right time to start construction. Mariano emphasized that the office market requires long-term planning, and developers cannot stop building due to current supply, otherwise they will fall behind when demand accelerates again.