Wedoany.com Report on Mar 11th, A recent study published by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that even if global temperatures temporarily exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius target set by the Paris Agreement, the global path to net zero emissions will not be derailed. However, it will reshape the design and implementation of climate policies.
The study analyzed the evolution of climate scenarios over the past three decades and found that temporary "overshoot" of temperature targets has shifted from a modeling tool to a structural feature of many realistic pathways. In many global scenarios, temperatures may temporarily rise above the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold before subsequently declining.
CMCC scientist Massimo Tavoni stated: "In a world of limited overshoot, the core goals of strong decarbonization and net zero remain unchanged." He added: "However, overshoot does reshape how the transition unfolds, how we implement it, manage risks, and ensure that policies are fair and effective."
The research shows that even with a limited overshoot of approximately 1.8 degrees Celsius, global CO₂ emissions still need to reach net zero between 2050 and 2060. While the net zero emissions target remains unchanged, overshoot increases the likelihood of extreme weather events and amplifies the social and economic impacts of climate change, with these risks distributed unevenly across regions and generations.
Overshoot will also increase the demand for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, which are necessary to bring global temperatures back down after emissions peak. Even in scenarios close to the Paris target, carbon removal is essential; greater overshoot may require large-scale carbon removal programs or even geoengineering interventions.
The researchers emphasize that the current challenge lies in designing climate strategies that fairly manage risks to adapt to a world where overshoot is increasingly likely. The core goal of net zero emissions pathways remains unchanged, but policy implementation must adapt to the changes brought about by overshoot.
