en.Wedoany.com Reported - Goldman Sachs has lowered its global copper mine supply forecast by 350,000 tons, citing slower-than-expected ramp-up at Freeport-McMoRan's (NYSE: FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia and Ivanhoe Mines' (TSX: IVN; US-OTC: IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. On Wednesday, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) stood at approximately $14,040 per ton.

The larger Kakula mine within the Kamoa-Kakula complex has been shut for about a year due to severe underground flooding caused by an earthquake. Meanwhile, a mudflow accident at the Grasberg mine in September 2025, which killed five miners, also disrupted production. Goldman Sachs expects both mines to struggle to return to previously anticipated production levels before 2028.

The latest forecast reflects deepening concerns over copper supply shortages amid still-strong demand. Goldman Sachs now projects the copper supply deficit outside the United States will widen to 640,000 tons, up from a previous estimate of 60,000 tons. Meanwhile, U.S. copper imports continue to outperform expectations. Goldman Sachs noted that U.S. imports have exceeded forecasts in the first half of 2026, and with the import arbitrage window opening, imports are expected to accelerate again in the coming month.

Goldman Sachs analysts also pointed to declining inventories in other regions as a factor supporting higher copper prices. They expect structural demand from electrification and energy transition projects to continue underpinning the copper market, while also highlighting risks posed by U.S. tariff policies.

Analysts at Citi shared a similar view. They said ongoing concerns over U.S. tariffs on refined copper could support market sentiment, adding that sluggish mine supply growth, coupled with "resilient" demand driven by artificial intelligence and the energy transition, would also provide support for copper prices.

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