en.Wedoany.com Reported - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop will reach a record 71.9 million bags (60 kg each), an increase of 14% from the previous year. This production boost is expected to drive a 30% rise in Brazilian coffee exports, after years in which the country's coffee output fell below its potential.

As the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, Brazil's 2026/27 harvest (July-June) is primarily driven by increased arabica coffee production. According to USDA data, output of this variety is expected to grow by 25% in this cycle, driven by the biennial positive cycle specific to coffee, favorable climatic conditions in major producing regions, and planting investments spurred by years of high prices.

The USDA noted that sufficient rainfall during the 2025 flowering period, coupled with more stable water supply in early 2026, ensured good development of coffee trees, supporting the prospect of high yields. Additionally, higher international prices have driven an expansion in planted area and increased management inputs, including the adoption of techniques to raise planting density per hectare.

Specifically, Brazil's 2026/27 arabica coffee production is estimated at 47.5 million bags (60 kg); canephora coffee (including robusta and conilon varieties) output is estimated at 24.4 million bags, slightly below the 25.0 million bags in 2025/26. The USDA explained that cooler weather and excessive rainfall in some producing regions caused localized impacts, while the previous year's output for this variety was at a high level.

Other institutions, such as Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) and private analysts, also believe that Brazil's coffee production will reach an all-time high.

In terms of foreign trade, Brazil's 2026/27 exports are estimated at approximately 49.0 million bags, compared to 37.8 million bags in the previous year, reflecting the more ample supply from the bumper harvest. The USDA stated that despite this forecast, exports could have been even higher without low inventory levels. The report noted that due to smaller harvests in recent years and strong external demand, exports were somewhat constrained in early 2026. However, with the harvest accelerating after mid-May and more products entering the market in the second half of the year, the export trend is expected to gradually recover throughout the year.

On the domestic front, the USDA estimates that Brazil's 2026/27 coffee consumption will remain relatively stable, at 22.39 million bags (60 kg), an increase of about 0.5% from the previous year. This data reflects a slight recovery after a contraction in consumption caused by high retail prices.

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