en.Wedoany.com Reported - Russia's Norilsk Nickel (ПАО «ГМК «Норильский никель»), in its 17th review of the nickel, copper, and platinum group metals markets, noted that copper price volatility has intensified over the past six months, with an unusually wide price range. Copper prices rose from a December low of $11,285 per tonne to a peak of $14,097 per tonne in mid-May. Changes in US monetary policy expectations, heightened geopolitical risks in Iran and the broader Gulf region, and regional imbalances driven by arbitrage opportunities have collectively influenced price movements.
Market regionalization is becoming a key factor influencing pricing. Potential US tariff risks are supporting regional premiums, stimulating copper inflows into the US market, while China's import arbitrage window remains open. These processes are facilitating the redistribution of inventories across different markets.
The copper concentrate segment remains the tightest link in the supply chain. The 2026 benchmark treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) have been negotiated at $0 per tonne, reflecting intense competition among smelters for limited concentrate supplies. Norilsk Nickel expects the concentrate market to remain in deficit in 2026, with a shortfall of approximately 800,000 tonnes. However, weak TC/RC alone does not imply large-scale smelter closures, as profit margins continue to be supported by by-product revenues and industrial policy measures aimed at maintaining capacity utilization.
Supply constraints are primarily concentrated in the mining and concentrate production stages. Global copper mine output is expected to grow only modestly: from 23.5 million tonnes in 2025 to 23.6 million tonnes in 2026, reaching 24.5 million tonnes by 2027.
Sulfuric acid has emerged as an additional factor affecting copper supply forecasts. For smelters, higher sulfuric acid prices can partially compensate for weak TC/RC through by-product revenues. Conversely, for copper producers using the solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) process, sulfuric acid is a direct cost item and, in some cases, can become a serious source of production risk if actual availability is constrained. This issue is particularly pronounced in regions with a high share of SX-EW output, including Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and could become more significant in the second half of 2026 if mineral raw material supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained.
Despite rising energy prices, tighter monetary policy expectations, and weakness in some traditional end-use sectors, copper demand remains resilient. In China, copper usage is supported by energy infrastructure, electrification, export-oriented manufacturing, and strategic industries, fully offsetting weakness in the real estate sector. In North America, demand is underpinned by investments in data infrastructure, energy systems, and new manufacturing capacity under reindustrialization policies. Demand conditions in Europe remain more restrained, but grid investments, renewable energy projects, and government infrastructure spending continue to provide support.
Despite the ongoing tightness in the concentrate market, the refined copper market is expected to remain in a moderate surplus in the near term. Refined copper demand is projected at 28.3 million tonnes in 2026 (up 3% year-on-year) and 29.3 million tonnes in 2027 (up 3% year-on-year); refined copper supply is expected to reach 28.6 million tonnes in 2026 (up 1% year-on-year) and 29.4 million tonnes in 2027 (up 3% year-on-year). This implies a surplus of 250,000 tonnes in 2026 and 160,000 tonnes in 2027.
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