Wedoany.com Report-May 31, A research paper from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, titled “Assessing the Levelized Cost of Energy in South Korea,” projects solar energy to become South Korea’s most cost-competitive energy source by 2030 to 2035. The study evaluates the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for various technologies in South Korea from 2030 to 2050, incorporating factors such as capital costs, fixed and variable operations and maintenance expenses, fuel costs, financing, and capacity factors.

The findings indicate that renewable energy sources, particularly solar and offshore wind, will experience significant cost reductions. By the mid-2030s, renewable energy costs are expected to decrease by 28% to 41% compared to 2023 levels, primarily due to lower expenses for infrastructure and grid connections. Large-scale solar projects, defined as exceeding 20 MW, are projected to achieve an LCOE of $47/MWh to $48/MWh by 2030, positioning them as highly competitive. When accounting for social costs—such as accident risks for nuclear power and carbon costs for coal and natural gas—solar across all scales is expected to be the most cost-effective energy source from the early 2030s.

In comparison, nuclear energy’s LCOE is forecasted to increase by 15% by the mid-2030s. Coal costs are expected to see a slight reduction, while natural gas costs may decline by 46%. By 2050, renewable energy costs are projected to fall further, by 38% to 56% from 2023 levels, with solar achieving an LCOE of $28/MWh to $36/MWh, making it the most cost-competitive option, while natural gas is expected to be the least competitive.

The researchers concluded: “These steps may contribute to enhancing energy security, managing long-term electricity costs, and supporting economic stability.” They recommend prioritizing solar and offshore wind development in regions with high capacity factors or lower connection costs to maximize cost-effectiveness. The study also suggests that adjustments to carbon pricing and emissions reduction strategies could further enhance the competitiveness of low-emission energy sources. Additionally, investments in grid flexibility, streamlined permitting processes, and advancements in green hydrogen production and storage technologies could support a more resilient energy system.

In 2024, South Korea expanded its solar capacity by over 3.1 GW, bringing its total installed solar capacity beyond 28 GW. The researchers emphasize that prioritizing renewable energy development can contribute to a cost-effective and sustainable energy future for the country.