Wedoany.com Report-Jun 6, Russian wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year are projected to decline significantly, reaching 41.7 million tons, a 19.8% decrease, according to the Price Index Center, as reported by Kommersant. The primary cause is a substantial reduction in shipments during the second half of the season. Alternative estimates from Sovekon predict exports at 40.9 million tons, down 22% year-on-year, while Rusagrotrans forecasts 41.5 million tons, a 25.2% drop.

Dmitry Krasnov from Reksoft Consulting noted: “In January-April, shipments fell by 40%, in March-April – by 60%.” Several factors contribute to this decline, including limited wheat stocks in southern regions, elevated railway tariffs, a stronger ruble, and lower global wheat prices, which have impacted export volumes.

The federal export quota, set at 10.6 million tons as of February 15, was utilized at only 76.4% capacity. Although the government expanded the additional quota for companies, analysts question its impact due to unfavorable profit margins for exporters. These challenges have constrained Russia’s ability to meet export targets in the current season.

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate a recovery in the 2025/26 season, with exports expected to rise to between 42 and 45 million tons. This projected increase is driven by a favorable harvest outlook and growing demand from markets in the Middle East and Asia. The improved supply and international interest are expected to support Russia’s wheat export market in the coming year.