Wedoany.com Report-Nov. 12, India’s cotton imports are projected to rise by 9.8% in the 2025/26 marketing year, reaching a record 4.5 million bales, as the government allows duty-free purchases and domestic output falls to its lowest level in 17 years, industry officials told Reuters. The increase in imports by the world’s second-largest cotton producer is expected to lend support to global cotton prices, which are currently near six-month lows.

A farmer harvests cotton in his field in Rangpurda village, Gujarat state, India, October 20, 2015.

According to Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), nearly 3 million bales are expected to arrive during the December quarter. India’s cotton imports reached a record 4.1 million bales in the previous year, sourced mainly from the United States, Brazil, Australia, and African countries.

“Cotton is a lot cheaper overseas right now compared to local prices, so textile mills are rushing to import it before the end of December,” Ganatra said. New Delhi has extended the exemption of an 11% import duty on cotton until December 31, which has encouraged a surge in import activity.

In addition to the duty exemption, concerns about local supply have prompted mills to seek imported cotton of higher quality. A New Delhi-based trader from a global trading firm noted that recent weather conditions have damaged crops in major producing regions. The western states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, along with the southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, experienced heavy and unseasonal rainfall in October, damaging crops that were ready for harvest. These four states together account for more than 70% of India’s total cotton output.

The CAI estimates India’s 2025/26 cotton production will decline by 2.4% from the previous year to 30.5 million bales, the lowest since the 2008/09 season. Some traders predict an even sharper fall, possibly to around 28 million bales.

The textile industry, one of India’s largest employers, provides direct employment to more than 45 million people. However, demand is expected to soften in the current season. The CAI projects that India’s cotton consumption will drop 4.5% to 30 million bales in 2025/26 due to weak export demand.

“Demand from the U.S. has fallen after they slapped on hefty tariffs, forcing many textile units in southern India to scale back their operations,” Ganatra said. The United States, which accounts for about 29% of India’s $38 billion annual textile exports, doubled tariffs on Indian imports to as high as 50% in August.

The combination of weak local output, lower global prices, and duty-free import access is expected to keep India’s cotton import momentum strong through the end of the year. Industry participants suggest that the country’s textile mills will continue to rely on foreign cotton to maintain production levels and meet domestic consumption needs amid challenging market conditions.