Wedoany.com Report-Nov. 22, The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) has upgraded its 2025/26 crop forecast, projecting a new record harvest for the state driven by favourable spring weather and higher-than-expected yields.

GIWA now estimates wheat production at 13.1 million tonnes (up 420,000 tonnes from the previous forecast), barley at 7.5 million tonnes (up 200,000 tonnes), and canola at 4.3 million tonnes (up 480,000 tonnes). These figures substantially exceed the five-year averages of 11.2 million tonnes for wheat, 5.2 million tonnes for barley, and 2.8 million tonnes for canola.

Compared with the 2024/25 season, expected growth is approximately 5% for wheat, 27% for barley, and 50% for canola.

GIWA stated: “Initial figures at the beginning of the harvest indicate that yields exceed expectations, and in many parts of the grain belt are significantly exceeding pre-harvest estimates.” Mild spring temperatures and adequate moisture in key growing regions contributed to strong results, while drier areas still delivered average outcomes. Barley and canola quality is reported as high, with wheat quality varying across the state.

Western Australia remains Australia’s largest grain-exporting region. The national wheat harvest is projected at 35.7 million tonnes, the third-highest on record. The increased supply is expected to add downward pressure on global grain and oilseed prices, following recent declines observed in international futures markets.

The ongoing harvest may yet produce further upward revisions. The bumper crop reinforces Australia’s role as a major reliable supplier of wheat, barley, and canola to international markets while demonstrating continued productivity gains in the country’s grain sector. For importing countries, the larger Australian crop offers improved availability and potentially more competitive pricing in the coming months.