en.Wedoany.com Reported - On May 25, China's billet price rose by RMB 20/tonne (approx. USD 3/t) month-on-month, reaching RMB 3,060/t (USD 451/t). Over the same period, rebar futures prices also increased by RMB 13/t (USD 2/t), closing at RMB 3,158/t (USD 465/t). This round of price increases was primarily influenced by a major coal mine accident within China, which led to a sharp rise in coking coal futures prices. Market participants anticipate that coal supply will tighten and safety inspections will intensify. Although underlying steel demand conditions remain unchanged, raw material and steel futures prices have been pushed higher as a result.
In the spot market, steel prices moved in line with futures, generally rising by about RMB 20 to 30/t. This increase reflects the market's reaction to cost-side pressures and short-term sentiment fluctuations. It is reported that China's billet export offers are currently around USD 476/t (FOB), indicating the impact of rising production costs on export pricing. Market analysts point out that the increase in coking coal prices directly pushes up steelmaking raw material costs, thereby providing support for finished steel prices.
From the demand side, despite the price rebound, the improvement in actual steel consumption remains limited. Procurement activities in the construction and manufacturing sectors have not shown significant growth, with end-users largely adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Some traders indicate that downstream enterprises are only purchasing based on immediate needs without large-scale stockpiling, making the sustainability of the price increase uncertain. Market participants generally remain cautious, believing that short-term price fluctuations are driven more by news-driven factors than by fundamental changes.
Looking ahead, the market's focus remains on the coal supply situation and the enforcement of safety inspection policies. If coal mine production resumption progresses slower than expected, coking coal prices may continue to rise, further supporting steel prices. However, if demand remains persistently weak, the room for steel price increases may be constrained. Overall, the current market is in a state where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, and the price trend still requires validation from subsequent data.
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