en.Wedoany.com Reported - The significant rise in copper prices in 2026 has once again made Chile's main export product a focal point of economic debate, with experts calling for cautious expectations regarding the impact of copper prices on Chile's economy. This week, copper prices reached a historic third high of $6.33 per pound, and the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) recently adjusted its full-year average price forecast to $5.50 per pound.
Sebastián Díaz, an analyst at Pacífico Research, believes the current situation is favorable for Chile's economy, but he expressed caution regarding the impact of historically high copper prices on economic growth, describing the effect as positive but moderate. The economist explained that one of the main factors contributing to this moderate impact is the structural stagnation in mining production, noting that copper prices were also high in 2025, yet output did not increase.
The rise in copper prices has had a significant impact on fiscal accounts. According to Pacífico Research estimates, for every one-cent increase in international copper prices, government effective revenue increases by $25 million. On the foreign exchange front, Díaz emphasized that market reactions have been relatively orderly, with higher copper prices supporting a stronger peso, and the exchange rate remaining within a range without significant deviations, even with copper at historic highs. Regarding inflation, the analyst ruled out the possibility of significant pressure from copper prices, attributing it more to fuel prices and international complexities, stating that the main determinant of current inflation is the international fuel price shock and its transmission to domestic CPI.
Global conditions also pose a risk factor for Chile's economy. Geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and pressure on key inputs have worsened expectations for households and businesses. Díaz warned that since the second half of 2025, economic growth has been sluggish, and the fuel shock has further exacerbated the weakness. On the sustainability of the current rally, the economist expects a partial correction in current levels over the coming years, but he acknowledged that structural factors will continue to support high copper prices, such as demand related to Artificial Intelligence, the energy transition, and defense. Finally, Díaz emphasized that Chile's major challenge will be how to leverage this situation to promote long-term growth based on greater export diversification and high-value-added products.
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