en.Wedoany.com Reported - The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest oil market outlook that the global oil market could shift from the most severe supply disruption in decades to a significant supply glut by 2027, as a peace agreement between the United States and Iran is expected to restore crude oil exports from the Gulf region.

In its report, the IEA noted that disruptions caused by the Iran conflict have not only reduced production but also weakened global demand. According to projections, global oil supply will increase by approximately 8 million barrels per day by 2027, while demand is expected to grow by only about 2 million barrels per day. The market could face a supply surplus of over 5 million barrels per day, one of the largest projected surpluses in recent years. This assessment is based on the expectation that the U.S.-Iran agreement will be successfully implemented, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and normal export flows from the Gulf region will resume. Previously, concerns over a prolonged disruption of Middle Eastern energy supplies had pushed oil prices above $110 per barrel. The agency believes that as production and exports gradually recover, the market is heading toward a period of ample supply.

In this report, the IEA also lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast by 700,000 barrels per day compared to last month. Global oil demand is expected to increase by only 1.1 million barrels per day this year, as geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and slowing economic growth dampen consumption. In the second quarter, global oil deliveries fell by nearly 5 million barrels per day, with trade disruptions affecting supply chains and industrial activity in major economies. Despite weakening demand growth, the supply outlook has improved significantly. The IEA estimates that easing restrictions on Gulf exports could restore over 14 million barrels per day of capacity that was previously blocked by conflict and shipping constraints. Signs of recovery are already emerging: as shipping activity gradually resumes, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached approximately 12 million barrels per day in early June.

For major Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, the reopening of export routes offers an opportunity to regain lost market share and increase production. However, analysts also warn that the return of substantial supply could pose new challenges for producers. A significant surplus may exert sustained downward pressure on oil prices, affecting government revenues and prompting OPEC+ members to reassess their production strategies. The IEA estimates that due to production losses in the Middle East, global oil supply will decrease by about 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026, despite increased output from North and South America. These losses are expected to be fully offset next year as Gulf production returns. Lower oil prices will benefit major importing economies such as China, India, and several European countries, reducing inflationary pressures and energy costs. Cheaper crude could also support a modest recovery in demand by 2027, but not enough to absorb the anticipated supply increase. The IEA also warns that the market outlook remains uncertain, with the pace of recovery depending on the durability of the peace agreement, the reopening of shipping routes, and the successful completion of security and demining operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Any new geopolitical tensions or delays in export recovery could significantly alter the market outlook.

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