US Wheat Exports Vulnerable to Tariff Retaliation
2025-04-10 15:30
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Wedoany.com Report-Apr. 10, On April 2, 2025, the White House unveiled new tariffs affecting over 50 countries, including a cumulative 54% rate on Chinese goods since U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term. These measures, set to start on April 9, prompted a response from China on April 4. Beijing announced an additional 34% tariff on U.S. goods, building on earlier rates of 10% to 15% applied this year, including 15% on wheat. As a result, U.S. wheat exports to China will face a total tariff of 49% from April 10.

On April 7, Trump escalated tensions by posting on Truth Social, threatening an extra 50% tariff on Chinese goods unless China reverses its recent tariff hikes on U.S. exports. Chinese officials have indicated no plans to adjust their stance. Last year, China imported $482.3 million worth of U.S. wheat, ranking as the fourth-largest market by value, per the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service. With the new tariffs, these exports will incur over $236 million in additional costs.

Despite this, China represented just 8.2% of U.S. wheat exports in 2024. Mexico led as the top buyer, importing $1.05 billion—about 18% of the total—unaffected by tariffs due to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The top 10 markets accounted for $4.36 billion, or over 74% of U.S. wheat exports. Excluding Mexico, $3.31 billion of this—nearly 56%—now faces potential retaliation, with China’s response already in motion. This leaves $2.83 billion in exports to nations like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the European Union at risk of further trade measures.

Chandler Goule, CEO of the National Wheat Growers Association (NAWG), stated: “Wheat farmers in the United States rely on fair trade with our neighbors and international partners to support their families and rural communities.” He expressed hope for dialogue to ease trade barriers, adding: “Farmers face many challenges, and as the farm economy continues to be squeezed by the high cost of production and low commodity prices, we are concerned about how new tariffs on key farm inputs will hurt farmers’ bottom line.”

Separately, proposed U.S. Trade Representative penalties targeting importers and exporters using Chinese-built ships could raise shipping costs by $15 to $40 per ton, according to industry estimates. An economic report warned this could cut U.S. wheat exports by over 62% and reduce wheat sector jobs by more than 33%. On March 24, NAWG and U.S. Wheat Associates urged the USTR to reconsider, noting that port fees, such as a $1 million charge per vessel, could act as an 8% to 12% export tax, straining the industry and its global customers.

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