en.Wedoany.com Reported - The global lithium market is undergoing a structural transformation, with the competitive focus shifting from resource endowment to building full value chain capabilities from extraction to processing. Multiple reports released in 2026 by institutions such as PwC, GEM Mining Consulting, Thunder Said Energy (TSE), and the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) indicate that geological conditions alone are no longer sufficient to maintain competitiveness. Energy transition, artificial intelligence expansion, and battery energy storage demand are redefining industry rules.
TSE forecasts that global lithium demand will grow at an average annual rate of approximately 9% over the next decade, while supply will grow at only about 6% annually, resulting in a structural gap that could reach 20% to 30% between 2030 and 2035. Current global annual production is approximately 260,000 tonnes of lithium content, with Australia accounting for 36%, Chile 22%, China 16%, and Argentina 10%. The institution estimates that by 2035, about 45% of projected demand will need to be met by projects that have not yet entered the construction phase. The report notes that before sodium-ion batteries become sufficiently competitive to partially replace lithium-ion technology, lithium carbonate prices may need to rebound to around $40 per kilogram to stimulate new investment.
Cochilco's bimonthly report shows that in May 2026, the CIF Asia price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached $24,000 per tonne, the highest level since December 2023. The average price for the first five months was $19,358 per tonne, nearly double the full-year average for 2025. The report attributes the rebound to simultaneous supply disruptions in China, Australia, and Zimbabwe, including the suspension of the Jianxiawo mine associated with CATL, tighter regulatory oversight of lepidolite operations in Jiangxi, Zimbabwe's restrictions on unprocessed ore exports, expected production declines at Australia's Greenbushes mine, and planned maintenance at the Kwinana refinery. Cochilco also notes that the industry is emerging from a severe oversupply over the past two years, with a price floor near $17,500 per tonne.
In its report "Mine 2026: From Ambition to Action," PwC emphasizes that capital allocation discipline has become as important as geological quality, with the M&A market focusing on critical minerals assets. Typical cases include the merger of Orocobre and Galaxy to form Allkem, which later merged with Livent to form Arcadium Lithium, ultimately acquired by Rio Tinto in 2025 for approximately $6.7 billion. The report points out that true competitive advantage lies in the ability to transform resources into a full industry chain capability from processing to recycling.
GEM Mining Consulting has introduced the District Potential Value Index (DPVI), proposing that competitive entities will shift from individual projects to mining district clusters. The framework includes factors such as shared infrastructure, water resources, energy, regulatory stability, and social license to operate. Argentina is listed as a potential country due to its outstanding economic potential and environmental performance in lithium districts, but the report notes that realizing its advantages requires consolidating institutional conditions and developing supporting infrastructure.
In Argentina, under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), the national government has approved expansion projects at Cauchari-Olaroz, Sal de Oro, Rincón, and Fénix, as well as LIEX S.A.'s Tres Quebradas (3Q) project in Fiambalá, Catamarca Province. The 3Q project involves an investment of $709 million to build a plant with an annual production capacity of 40,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, expected to create 4,406 direct and indirect jobs and potentially contribute approximately $400 million in annual exports. With the latest approvals, RIGI now includes 21 approved projects with committed investments totaling $46.7 billion.
In terms of demand structure, Cochilco notes that battery energy storage systems (BESS) have become the fastest-growing segment, driven by renewable energy expansion and demand from AI data centers, with global demand expected to grow by over 160% by 2030. On the supply side, pressures persist from regulatory delays, rising capital costs, and increasingly stringent environmental requirements.
