Wedoany.com Report-Sept. 17, The United States is set to harvest a record-breaking corn crop this autumn, surpassing the previous record from two years ago by nearly 1.5 billion bushels, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The bumper crop is largely attributed to the largest acreage in 92 years, with the USDA reporting that the corn supply will rise by 59%, reaching a seven-year high. Despite this, exports are also projected to hit record levels, as stated in the USDA's latest monthly supply-and-demand report.

However, the abundance of corn may exert pressure on the farm economy. US farmers have already faced challenges with low crop prices and rising input costs such as fertilizer and seeds. Adjusted for inflation, cash crop receipts are expected to be the lowest since 2007, reflecting ongoing economic stress in the sector.

Despite these economic hurdles, the increase in corn supplies benefits certain industries, particularly livestock producers who rely on corn for animal feed, as well as ethanol producers.

The USDA has slightly lowered its corn yield forecast, but overall production has been increased due to an increase in harvested acreage. In its August report, the USDA surprised traders by announcing a significant acreage increase, leading to expectations that this would offset the lower yield estimates. Susan Stroud, founder and analyst at No Bull Agriculture, commented: “It didn’t matter that USDA reduced the corn yield, because of the amount of corn acreage they found.”

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures saw little movement in response to the USDA's harvest outlook, as traders anticipate further adjustments in future reports.

The USDA also increased its estimate for 2025 corn production, now forecasting a record 16.814 billion bushels, with an expected 186.7 bushels per acre yield, which is slightly lower than the August estimate of 188.8 bushels per acre. The figures, however, exceeded analysts' expectations. Favorable weather during the summer growing season initially boosted yield forecasts, though late-season disease and dry conditions impacted the final outcome.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, the USDA projects ending corn stocks at 2.11 billion bushels, slightly down from the previous month but still the largest since the 2018/19 season.

As for soybeans, the USDA has raised its yield estimate to 53.5 bushels per acre, slightly above the August forecast of 53.6 bushels. The agency also increased soybean production to 4.301 billion bushels, up from 4.292 billion in August due to increased harvested acres. However, the USDA lowered its soybean export forecast to the lowest levels since the US-China trade war during the first term of President Donald Trump. This decline in soybean exports has been attributed to renewed trade tensions with Beijing, which has not yet made any new purchases from the US.