Recently, researchers have warned that if the 60-meter diameter asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts the Moon in 2032, it could trigger a chain reaction posing threats to Earth's satellites and creating a spectacular meteor shower. Earlier this year, the asteroid was once considered a potential direct threat to Earth, but subsequent observations ruled out that possibility.

According to Paul Wiegert, the lead author from the University of Western Ontario in Canada, data from the James Webb Space Telescope in May has raised the probability of the asteroid impacting the Moon to 4.3%. He emphasized that it would be the largest asteroid to hit the Moon in about 5,000 years, with the impact releasing energy equivalent to a large nuclear explosion.

Through a series of simulations, researchers found that if the asteroid strikes the Moon's Earth-facing side, up to 100 million kilograms of material could be ejected from the lunar surface. About 10% of these fragments might be captured by Earth's gravity, though the atmosphere would protect the surface from millimeter- to centimeter-sized lunar rocks. However, these high-speed fragments could still threaten satellites orbiting Earth. Wiegert noted that a centimeter-sized rock traveling at tens of thousands of meters per second would have destructive power comparable to a bullet.

Although the probability of a direct impact on the Moon's near side remains only 2%, researchers say the event warrants close monitoring. The asteroid is not expected to be visible again until 2028, when more information on its orbit and potential threats will be available. Wiegert indicated that if a high likelihood of direct impact is confirmed, humanity might have sufficient time to plan a mission to save the Moon, which would also serve as an excellent "target" for testing planetary defense capabilities.

The preprint study was published on arXiv last week and has been submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letters for peer review. Researchers stress that while the impact probability is low, vigilance is necessary, and monitoring of the asteroid's dynamics must continue.