en.Wedoany.com Reported - In the first 24 days of May 2026, India's power sector faced its most severe operational test as an intense and widespread heatwave pushed electricity demand into uncharted territory. Peak demand repeatedly set new records, hitting an all-time high of 270.82 GW on May 21, forcing the grid to simultaneously rely on higher coal-fired generation, stronger renewable energy output, and increased market procurement to maintain supply.
Electricity demand was markedly higher this summer. The average daily peak demand from May 1 to 24, 2026, rose to approximately 241 GW, compared to 217 GW during the same period last year. After the second week of May, demand remained persistently elevated, frequently exceeding 240 GW and breaching 250 GW multiple times, ultimately reaching a peak of 270.82 GW on May 21, far above the 230.99 GW recorded a year earlier. This surge occurred against the backdrop of more extensive and severe heatwave conditions across northern, central, and eastern India compared to 2025. Prolonged high daytime temperatures and warmer nights in major consumption centers drove up cooling demand and extended air-conditioning loads into later hours. Unlike the sporadic nature of previous summer peaks, May 2026 witnessed sustained high demand, indicating a structural upward shift in India's summer load curve.
Looking at the generation mix, the data reveals a story more nuanced than a simple coal versus renewables narrative. In the first 24 days of May, India generated 137.407 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% from 125.166 billion units last year. Coal-fired power remained the system's cornerstone, with generation rising 7% to 94.268 billion units. However, as renewable energy expanded at a faster pace, coal's share in the generation mix slightly declined. Renewables became the fastest-growing power source, surging 32.2% year-on-year, with their share of generation rising from 14.5% last year to 17.4%. Strong solar radiation and improved wind conditions alleviated pressure on thermal power during daytime hours, while hydropower helped balance evening demand after solar output declined. Gas-fired generation continued to shrink despite high market prices, highlighting the fuel's weak competitiveness in India's dispatch order.
India's summer stress pattern is also changing. On several of the highest demand days in May, the peak occurred between 3:00 PM and 4:00 PM, coinciding with maximum cooling load. The record peak of 270.82 GW on May 21 was reached at 3:45 PM, indicating rising commercial and cooling demand during solar hours. Nevertheless, high nighttime temperatures also sustained demand after sunset, with some days, including May 24, recording evening peaks.
The Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) reflected the system's increasing strain. The average Market Clearing Price (MCP) from May 1 to 24 rose to approximately 4,147 INR/MWh, a year-on-year increase of 13%. However, more telling than the price was the shift in bidding behavior. Purchase bids surged by about 66%, while sell bids grew by only 13%, tightening the buy-to-sell ratio from 0.61 last year to 0.89, indicating intensifying competition among buyers for limited supply, especially during non-solar evening hours.
Despite record demand, India avoided a widespread coal stock crisis. Coal stocks at power plants remained largely stable, standing at 50.41 million tonnes on May 1 and 50.03 million tonnes on May 24. However, the number of critical plants increased from 18 to 22, indicating rising stress at specific locations. The challenge was more about distribution than total volume: pithead plants were relatively comfortable, while several non-pithead plants reliant on long-distance rail transport saw their stock buffers continue to tighten.
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