Wedoany.com Report-Apr. 9, The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) forecasts that Ukraine will increase poultry production by 28%, reaching 1.7 million tonnes by 2033 compared to 2023 levels. This growth is driven by favorable profit margins and shifting consumer preferences. Large-scale poultry producers, many of whom also manufacture feed, play a key role in this expansion. Their ability to reduce costs and leverage economies of scale significantly boosts the industry’s capacity, according to KSE.

Per capita poultry meat consumption in Ukraine is expected to rise to 32.3 kg annually by 2033, a 15.9% increase from 2023. Over the next few years, poultry is projected to overtake beef as the main protein source for Ukrainians. Meanwhile, beef consumption is anticipated to decline sharply. However, total poultry consumption is expected to stabilize at around 1.3 million tonnes per year after 2026, influenced by a forecasted population decrease.

Egg production is also set to grow, with KSE predicting a rise to 855,000 tonnes by 2033, up 31% from 2023. Large poultry enterprises have contributed to this increase. Yet, KSE notes: “However, neither chicken eggs production nor domestic consumption will recover to the pre-war level by 2033, primarily due to negative population trend and destruction of the large egg-producing facilities in the south of Ukraine during the Russian invasion.” This reflects ongoing challenges in restoring pre-war output levels.

Ukrainian agriculture, including the poultry sector, continues to face setbacks from ongoing conflict. KSE estimates the value of destroyed assets at US$10.3 billion, an 18% rise from earlier assessments made during the first year of the full-scale invasion. The analysts explain: “The relatively moderate increase in damages is attributed to a substantial share of the assets located in areas of active hostilities already being damaged in the previous version of the estimates.” This suggests much of the initial harm had already occurred.

Looking ahead, KSE calculates that reconstruction and recovery efforts over the next decade will require US$56 billion. For 2024, priority needs total US$435 million, with most funding already secured through donor support. The poultry industry’s growth, despite these challenges, highlights its resilience and adaptability. The shift toward poultry as a dietary staple, alongside efforts to rebuild, underscores the sector’s importance to Ukraine’s food supply and economy in the coming years.