en.Wedoany.com Reported - Embraer has released the 2026 edition of its study "Connecting Africa – Unlocking Africa’s Intra-Regional Connectivity Potential." The document updates the map of major intra-African routes, showing that despite new routes launched over the past year, the connectivity gap between African cities continues to widen, creating opportunities for airlines and regional aircraft operators.
The report shows that the new version identifies 55 origin-destination (O&D) markets with no scheduled direct flights, 10 more than the previous edition. The study considers only intra-African markets, using data from Sabre covering April 2025 to March 2026, excluding domestic flights, routes to North Africa, and routes exceeding 2,600 nautical miles.
The top route is Cape Town (CPT) to Lagos (LOS). According to the demand stimulation model used by Embraer, the estimated daily demand per direction on this route is 70 passengers (PDEW), which could rise to 94 passengers per day after the launch of direct flights. Following closely are markets including Cape Town-Lusaka, Dakar-Libreville, Bamako-Libreville, and Abuja-Nairobi, which are considered viable candidates for next-generation regional aircraft operations.
The report emphasizes that the increase in the number of unserved markets is not due to a lack of demand. Annual passenger growth rates on several city pairs exceed 50%, while new routes are launched and old ones discontinued, creating a highly dynamic market environment. Embraer believes this performance indicates that the challenge lies in matching capacity, frequency, and business models, rather than a lack of consumer demand.
Compared to the previous edition of the survey, three markets have exited the ranking due to the launch of direct flights: Abidjan-Douala, Dakar-Cotonou, and Cape Town-Dar es Salaam. Meanwhile, new opportunities have entered the top ten potential routes, including Bamako-Libreville, Durban-Mauritius, Accra-Dakar, Lagos-Dakar, and Maputo-Nairobi, reflecting changes in African demand and route networks.
The study also records five additional routes launched since the previous edition, including Accra-Ouagadougou, Bujumbura-Dar es Salaam, Accra-Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam-Lagos, and Cape Town-Zanzibar, with the last expected to begin operations in October 2026 by Airlink using Embraer E195-E2 aircraft.
According to the manufacturer's assessment, dozens of markets with daily one-way demand ranging from 10 to 70 passengers persist, highlighting the importance of aircraft with low capacity, low operating costs, and high frequency. The document notes that demand in many of these markets remains below the economic threshold for traditional narrow-body jets but is suitable for regional aircraft or small narrow-body operations, enabling profitability and supporting connectivity expansion across the continent.
The study concludes that the African market continues to offer a growing portfolio of opportunities for route network expansion. Embraer's recommendations to airlines focus on three pillars: correctly matching aircraft capacity, prioritizing increased flight frequency over per-flight capacity, and accelerating the launch of new routes to reduce reliance on current major regional hub transfers.
