Wedoany.com Report on Feb 2nd, influenced by weakening macro sentiment and profit-taking by funds, the previously continuously rising main tin contract sn2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) experienced a significant correction, driving down futures prices overall. Tin price volatility was intense that day, with open interest decreasing by 8,589 lots, and it finally settled at 409,000 yuan per ton, down 8.26% from the previous day's settlement price. During the same period, the three-month LME tin price also fell to $52,500 per ton, a drop of 3.67%.
Positive signals emerged from the overseas supply side. Australian mining company Metals X reported that its Renison mine produced 3,319 tons of tin concentrate in the fourth quarter of 2025, a substantial increase of 46.1% quarter-on-quarter, driving annual production up to 10,747 tons, nearing historical peak levels. The mining grade for that quarter improved by 55% to 2.34%, and the beneficiation recovery rate also increased to 82.34%, indicating continued optimization of mine operational efficiency. If production capacity remains stable, it may alleviate market concerns about tight overseas tin supply to some extent.
Demand-side performance remains weak. Although the price decline stimulated some purchasing orders, the current price level is still relatively high, suppressing the release of pre-holiday stocking demand. The electronics industry end continues to bear the pressure of rising metal costs, with demand transmission proving difficult; following the concentrated installation period in December, the photovoltaic market has fewer new projects in the first quarter, providing limited impetus for tin demand.
In summary, under the combined influence of weakening macro drivers, improved expectations for overseas supply, and persistently sluggish demand, tin prices have entered an adjustment phase. Subsequent attention should be paid to pre-holiday macro developments, the implementation progress of Indonesia's RKAB policy, and changes in global inventories. Tin prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with the price center likely to gradually shift downward. Market participants are advised to operate rationally and manage risks effectively.
