en.Wedoany.com Reported - Dutch grid operator TenneT, in its annual report "Security of Supply Monitor 2026" submitted to the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, indicates that the risk to the country's power supply security will increase significantly in the coming years. The report shows that under the scenarios examined, the supply security standard of an average maximum of four hours of power shortage per year in the Netherlands will be breached from 2030.
The "Security of Supply Monitor," an annual assessment, examines whether the Dutch power system will have sufficient generation capacity to meet demand in the future. This report covers the period up to 2035 and is based on scenario analyses for 2028, 2030, 2033, and 2035. The analysis covers expected developments in generation capacity, energy storage, electricity imports, and demand response.
Due to uncertainty regarding the timing of future electricity demand growth in the Netherlands, the report sets out two scenarios: faster and slower electricity demand growth. Sensitivity analyses also consider a slowdown in overall European electricity demand growth. For each scenario, the report assesses dozens of weather conditions and generator outage situations. The potential extent of power shortages is measured by two indicators: Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS), which together reflect the frequency and severity of potential shortages.
The report concludes that by 2035, the risk to the security of supply of the Dutch power system will increase significantly. Under all considered scenarios, the standard of an average maximum of four hours of power shortage per year will be breached from 2030. Whether the standard is exceeded in 2028 depends on electricity demand assumptions, with LOLE values ranging between 0.7 and 4.5 hours per year. From 2030 onwards, the structural breach of the standard becomes more certain, with expected shortage hours rising rapidly thereafter, reaching LOLE values of 37 to 46 hours per year by 2035. The main reasons for this deterioration are the rapid growth in electricity demand driven by electrification and the decline in dispatchable generation capacity in the Netherlands and neighboring countries. Although solar and wind power generation continue to increase, and flexibility options such as batteries and demand response are expanding, these developments are insufficient to fully compensate for the decline in thermal generation capacity from natural gas and coal-fired power plants and the rise in demand. During prolonged power shortage periods, the contribution of batteries and demand response remains limited.
The security of supply in the Netherlands is strongly influenced by developments abroad. During shortage periods, electricity imports are expected to increase from approximately 1 gigawatt (GW) in 2028 to nearly 9 GW in 2035. Neighboring countries such as Belgium, Germany, and Denmark are also expected to face power shortages in the future and may therefore rely on Dutch generation capacity. The report notes that interdependence between countries will increase significantly. A new "missing capacity analysis" indicates that under the assumed scenarios, approximately 0.4 GW of additional capacity would be needed in 2030 to meet the supply security standard; if neighboring countries fail to take measures to ensure their own supply security, this requirement could rise to 3.7 GW, with most of the additional Dutch capacity then being used for export.
Commenting on the above analysis, TenneT Chief Operating Officer Maarten Abbenhuis stated that through the monitoring report, TenneT has shown for years that not only the growth in electricity demand matters, but also the availability of sufficient dispatchable capacity in the Netherlands and neighboring countries. The energy transition requires foresight and timely action. By making timely choices and implementing binding measures for the execution of solutions, the Netherlands can ensure it continues to have a sustainable, reliable, and independent power system in the future.
TenneT has made three recommendations to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy. The company calls for the implementation of a capacity mechanism, which could take the form of a full market mechanism, a strategic reserve, or a combination of both, and should be operational by the winter of 2029-2030, when supply security is particularly critical. TenneT also recommends explicitly incorporating demand response into the capacity mechanism to ensure it makes a concrete contribution to supply security and provides financial value support for market participants' investments. Furthermore, TenneT urges the Ministry to monitor developments in neighboring countries and align with those that have already introduced or are considering capacity mechanisms, arguing that closer coordination will facilitate faster implementation, improve comparability, and provide opportunities for international coordination.
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