en.Wedoany.com Reported - In June 2026, global coal shipments increased by 14% year-on-year, with shipments to China rising 41% year-on-year, primarily driven by weak domestic supply and growing power generation demand. Since the start of the year, global coal shipments have grown 3% year-on-year, reversing the 4% decline seen in the same period last year. BIMCO Shipping Analysis Manager Filipe Gouveia disclosed this data.
Year-to-date, coal shipments to China fell 3% year-on-year, with accelerated growth beginning in May 2026. This growth was driven by weaker domestic coal production in China, partly due to a mining accident in Shanxi on May 28, 2026. Following the incident, 109 coal mines in Shanxi were temporarily closed for safety inspections, with some reopening in June, though output remained below pre-accident levels.
In June, coal shipments to South Korea, Japan, and the EU remained strong, rising 25%, 13%, and 15% year-on-year respectively, providing further support to global volumes. These countries have been seeking alternative energy supplies since March 2026 due to LNG transport disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz transit issues.
The growth in coal shipments has positively impacted the dry bulk market, particularly the Panamax segment, as coal accounted for about half of the ton-mile demand in this segment in June. This drove stronger freight rates, with S&P Global Commodity Insights' Platts KMAX 9 index rising 73% year-on-year in June, Gouveia said.
On the export side, Indonesia and Russia saw the largest increases in shipments, up 12% and 33% year-on-year respectively in June. The Indonesian government initially set this year's coal production target at 600 million tons, 24% lower than 2025 levels, but announced in June that it would expand quotas.
The outlook for coal shipments in the remainder of the year is mixed. After safety inspections conclude, China's coal production may strengthen, negatively impacting import demand. Conversely, the arrival of El Niño is expected to positively impact coal demand in India and Southeast Asia, as El Niño typically brings weaker monsoons, already causing India's driest June in 12 years, thereby negatively affecting hydropower generation in the region.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key uncertainty for the coal shipment outlook. A full and sustained reopening of the strait could weaken coal import demand from markets such as South Korea, Japan, and the EU. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has led to an increase in vessel transits through the strait, but operational and safety challenges persist. Additionally, the continued restoration of normal transit conditions may still depend on a final peace agreement, Gouveia said.
