Wedoany.com Report-Dec.1, Turkey's role as a major durum wheat exporter is returning to more typical levels in the 2025-26 marketing year. After reaching 1.6 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 700,000 tonnes in 2024-25, the country's export volume is expected to drop to approximately 200,000–300,000 tonnes, close to its long-term average of around 150,000 tonnes.

Analysts attribute the reduction to several factors. Domestic production is estimated to be about 14 percent lower than last year. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) purchased large quantities of durum earlier in 2025 at around US$351 per tonne to support farmers facing higher input costs, which boosted local consumption and reduced available export supplies. At the same time, elevated domestic prices have made Turkish durum less competitive on the international market.

Annachiara Saguatti, analyst at Italian agri-food intelligence firm Arete, confirmed the trend: "The pullback looks real."

The smaller Turkish export program comes as Canada and the United States have harvested substantial durum crops. Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate for the 2025 Canadian crop stands at 6.54 million tonnes, with many industry participants expecting the final figure, due on 4 December, to reach 7.5 million tonnes – the second-largest on record. In the United States, the USDA reported 2.35 million tonnes, a 7.7 percent increase year-on-year.

Jim Peterson, administrator of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, noted that North American producers will not capture the entire volume previously supplied by Turkey, as Russia, Kazakhstan, and some Eastern European countries have also increased durum output. Nevertheless, additional export opportunities are expected to flow toward Canada and the United States, similar to what occurred when Turkish volumes declined last year.

Saguatti added that the reduced Turkish presence removes a significant swing supplier from a previously tight global market. She anticipates Canada will gain the largest share of the redirected demand, followed by exporters in the European Union and Black Sea region. "So, Turkey's diminished role is supportive for Canadian export demand and basis," she said.

Global ending stocks for 2025-26 are projected by the International Grains Council at 8.3 million tonnes, higher than the 7.0 million tonnes of the previous year and well above the 6.2 million tonnes carried out two years ago, reflecting improved overall supply availability.

Early indications for Turkey's 2026-27 crop point to potential challenges. Industry contacts report delayed seeding and very low soil moisture levels. Saguatti observed: "If meaningful rainfall doesn't arrive within the next month, concerns arise around germination and crop emergence, which would start to cap yield potential for 2026-27."

Market participants continue to monitor weather developments in major producing regions, as well as trade policy updates that could influence future durum flows and pricing.