en.Wedoany.com Reported - Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) and Indian Potash Limited (IPL) have reached an agreement on the first contract for Indian standard Muriate of Potash (MOP) for 2026, at a price of $383/t cfr with 180 days' credit, up by $34/t or 10pc from the $349/t cfr settled for the second half of 2025.
Under the agreement, BPC will supply around 600,000t of MOP to IPL, with shipment scheduled from June to the end of 2026.
No other suppliers have yet confirmed publicly that they have concluded a 2026 contract with Indian importers. The market widely expects all other suppliers to follow this price and supply India at $383/t cfr. Just a week before the agreement was confirmed, some market participants had hinted that a price could be concluded at around $385/t.
Notably, the 2026 Indian contract price now stands at a $35/t premium over the Chinese price. The Chinese price was settled as early as early December 2025, with an increase of just $2/t from the second-half 2025 level. The Indian premium reflects the rise in global spot prices since the start of 2026.
The new Indian price falls within Profercy's expected range of $380-390/t cfr, a forecast dependent on the timing of the settlement. This price accurately reflects the latest spot price levels for standard MOP in Southeast Asia, where spot prices are currently in the $380-390/t cfr range, having risen by an average of nearly $30/t since the 2026 Chinese contract was settled.
The current Indian contract price is at its highest level since the first half of 2023, when it was $415/t cfr. There were earlier reports that suppliers were targeting prices as high as $400/t cfr for 2026.
BPC was also the first supplier to sign a contract for the second half of 2025 in India, reaching an agreement with IPL at $349/t cfr on 180 days' credit in early June last year, up by $64-66/t or 23pc from the $283-285/t cfr settled for 2024.
Indian MOP import margins are currently deeply negative. With the contract price rising by $34/t year on year, the average sales margin for importers of straight MOP in India is now assessed at a loss of $51/t.
The margin calculation is based on unchanged nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) rates for the Kharif season (monsoon, April-September), current costs and exchange rates, and the latest reported maximum retail prices (MRPs). The negative margin has worsened from a loss of $9/t in April, driven by the higher contract price and the depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. The average import margin was last positive at $2/t in February.
Looking back, the average margin was $4/t in December 2025 and $10/t in November, having been as high as $21/t in late October. The current margin is below the six-year average of $16-17/t and the 2024 Kharif season average of $68/t.
The MRP for Indian MOP is reported to be unchanged at Rs1,750-1,800 per bag, with an average MRP of Rs1,775/bag, equivalent to Rs35,500/t ($371/t). The MRP has been flat since late November 2025.
Given the significant losses currently faced by Indian MOP importers, an increase in the MRP is expected. While necessary, this adjustment could dampen Indian potash consumption in the second half of this year, while sales in other regions may slow as affordability gradually deteriorates.
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