en.Wedoany.com Reported - The analytical center of Rusagrotrans has raised its May wheat export forecast by 100,000 tonnes, with the latest estimate at 3 million tonnes. According to the agency's data, Russia had already shipped approximately 2.5 million tonnes of wheat between May 1 and 25. Previous industry analysis suggests that total exports for this agricultural year could reach around 46.5 million tonnes, making it the third-highest production season after 2022/23 and 2023/24.
Wheat futures prices declined in the latter half of last week. Analysts at Rusagrotrans believe the downward pressure stemmed from several factors: news of negotiations between the US and Iran leading to weaker international oil prices, Argentina's reduction of agricultural export duties, and rainfall in US growing regions. Contrary to the futures market trend, spot market prices are still rising, driven by widespread expectations that wheat production in major exporting countries will decrease under the influence of the El Niño phenomenon and an increased likelihood of hot, dry summer conditions in the EU.
In terms of FOB quotations, the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for June delivery rose by $2 per tonne, reaching $246 per tonne, the highest level since May 2025. The FOB quotation for new-crop wheat was $242 to $243 per tonne, up $2.5 per tonne from the previous week. In the Russian domestic market, truck delivery prices to deep-water ports fell by 200 rubles per tonne to 15,700–16,000 rubles per tonne, excluding VAT; rail delivery prices dropped by 100 rubles per tonne to 15,900–16,000 rubles per tonne. Prices at shallow-water ports remained stable, holding at 15,000–15,200 rubles per tonne.
Another analytical agency, SovEcon, previously stated that port wheat purchase prices had fallen last week to their lowest point since early February, at 15,600 rubles per tonne, a week-on-week decline of 500 rubles per tonne. Compared to the same period last year, the price dropped by 1,300 rubles per tonne, a decrease of 8%. SovEcon noted that the main pressure came from the continued strengthening of the ruble: according to the Russian Central Bank, the ruble exchange rate has appreciated by nearly 10% since the beginning of the year. A stronger ruble reduces exporters' ruble-denominated revenue, forcing them to lower domestic purchase prices. The agency's analysts also mentioned that the moderate increase in wheat export prices was insufficient to offset the impact of the ruble's appreciation, leaving export margins in negative territory.
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