en.Wedoany.com Reported - According to the Global Port Tracker report jointly released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, the recent surge in import volumes at U.S. ports is expected to be short-lived, with imports remaining below year-ago levels for most of the period from late summer to early autumn.
Jonathan Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the NRF, stated that the expected year-on-year growth in June is partly due to retailers stocking up in advance amid concerns over potential tariff increases or rising fuel costs starting in August. However, the ongoing conflict with Iran continues to drive up inflation and exacerbate economic uncertainty, leading to an overall downward trend in imports.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that the June year-on-year data is also influenced by a low comparison base last year. In April 2025, imports dropped sharply after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced the "Liberation Day" tariffs.
Based on available data, the ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report handled 2.05 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in April 2026, with data from the Port of New York and New Jersey yet to be released. Throughput for that month fell 5.1% from March and was down 7.3% year-on-year, indicating a weakening in imports ahead of the expected rebound in early summer.
For May, the report estimates imports at 2.14 million TEUs, up 9.7% year-on-year; June is projected at 2.25 million TEUs, an increase of 14.3%, reflecting both the pre-stocking pattern and the low comparison period in 2025. Hackett explained that the upward revision in June cargo volume expectations is due to retailers moving peak-season goods forward in response to concerns over carriers passing on sharply rising fuel costs and punitive alternative tariffs.
Cargo volumes are expected to slow after midsummer: July is projected at 2.19 million TEUs, down 8.4% year-on-year; August at 2.12 million TEUs, down 8.6%; and September at 2.06 million TEUs, down 2.2%. October is forecast at 2.08 million TEUs, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year. Hackett pointed out that the front-loading pattern may lead to an earlier peak season, with cargo volumes remaining elevated in June and July rather than showing a single pronounced peak.
The report states that if the forecasts hold, total imports in the first half of 2026 will reach 12.6 million TEUs, up 0.6% from the same period in 2025. Hackett added that the current import surge may continue into July, presenting an early peak season similar to recent patterns, characterized by increased volumes rather than a sharp peak. Thereafter, imports are expected to weaken as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of rising inflation becomes apparent.
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