Russian thermal coal export prices expected to drop 10%-20% by end of 2028

en.Wedoany.com Reported - Research firm NEFT Research expects Russian thermal coal export prices to fall by 10% to 20% by the end of 2028 compared to June 2026 levels, depending on supply directions. This conclusion was cited by the newspaper Kommersant.

Analysts point out that between 2027 and 2028, several factors supporting prices are expected to gradually weaken: China's domestic coal production will stabilize after safety inspections, and Indonesian exports will adapt to new regulatory mechanisms. The market will face structural oversupply.

Specific price forecasts indicate that the 5,500 kcal coal index in the Far East could fall to $84 per ton by the end of 2026 (from $97 in June), range between $78 and $88 per ton in 2027, and stand at around $78 per ton in 2028. Prices in the northwest and southern regions are also expected to decline, with 6,000 kcal coal potentially dropping to $65-$70 per ton and $77-$80 per ton, respectively.

The profitability of Russian exporters will continue to face pressure due to discounts and high infrastructure costs. Experts believe that owning port facilities and railway cars will be key to maintaining profitability.

Data shows that Russian coal exports are growing: shipments in the first five months of 2026 increased by 4.7% to 85.1 million tons. India increased its Russian coal imports by 30% within six months to 5.4 million tons, benefiting from price advantages and shorter logistics chains.