Wedoany.com Report-Dec.19, Brazil is projected to become the world's third-largest pork exporter in 2025, overtaking Canada, according to forecasts from the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA). The association anticipates a 10% rise in export volumes for the year.

From January to October 2025, Brazilian pork exports increased by 12.9% in volume and 22% in revenue, as reported by ABPA president Ricardo Santin. Despite a continued reduction of approximately 30% in imports by one major market for the second year, Brazil has successfully grown its shipments to several expanding destinations.

Santin pointed to notable gains in markets such as Japan (+25%), Vietnam (+24%), Mexico, and especially the Philippines, which has emerged as the primary buyer of Brazilian pork.

Preliminary trade data indicate that November exports are likely to reach around 120,000 tonnes, generating approximately US$300 million in revenue. This would bring total shipments for the first eleven months to between 1.37 and 1.38 million tonnes, reflecting an 11% increase over the same period in 2024.

ABPA also projects domestic pork production to reach up to 5.55 million tonnes in 2025, with further growth to 5.7 million tonnes in 2026, representing a 2.7% expansion.

Brazil's improved export performance stems from competitive domestic conditions and favorable global developments. Stable feed costs and ample grain availability from robust harvests have supported efficient production and attractive pricing.

On the international front, shifts in supply from other major producers have created opportunities. The United States has directed more output toward its domestic market, resulting in a 3.5% decline in its exports. European production has been affected by African Swine Fever outbreaks in wild boar populations, leading to facility closures in regions such as Catalonia, Spain. Increased import needs have also arisen in the Philippines due to disease challenges.

Additionally, potential new approvals for Brazilian pork offal in a large global market could provide further export avenues.

Canada has adjusted its 2025 export forecast downward to 1.3–1.35 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 1.45 million tonnes. In contrast, Brazil is on track to achieve 1.49 million tonnes, a 10% increase. Confirmation of these volumes would position Brazil third globally in pork exports.

Domestic availability is expected to grow alongside exports, reaching 4.06 million tonnes in 2025 (+2.7%), with per capita consumption potentially rising to 19 kg annually. Predictable production costs, supported by steady maize and soy prices, continue to bolster the sector's competitiveness.