en.Wedoany.com Reported - According to data released by industry monitoring agencies BigMint and Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) in early July 2026, China's billet and rebar prices have shown a volatile yet strengthening trend, driven by the dual impact of high raw material costs and expectations of tight power supply in some regions.

Cost is the main factor supporting current steel prices. Iron ore, as the core raw material for long-process steel mills, accounts for 40% of the total steel cost, with imported ore prices remaining high in 2026. In terms of coke, the tenth round of price hikes has recently been initiated, further pushing up production costs for steel mills. The sustained strength of raw material prices has directly solidified the bottom support for steel prices. Driven by costs, billet prices have been raised multiple times since May, with export quotations also increasing accordingly.

In addition to cost factors, market concerns over power supply have also boosted steel prices. During the peak summer electricity consumption period, expectations of tight power supply in some regions have strengthened the market's judgment that steel supply may tighten. Under the combined effect of cost and supply expectations, sentiment in the steel futures market has improved, with both rebar futures and billet prices rebounding.

In the spot market, the overall steel market shows a pattern of "weak supply and weak demand." As of July 8, the average price of 20mm Grade III seismic rebar in 31 major cities across China stood at 3,289 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day; the ex-factory price of ordinary billet in Tangshan Qian'an was reported at 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. On the export side, the FOB price of billet on July 8 edged up to $459-462/ton. Currently in the traditional off-season for consumption, compounded by typhoon and rainfall weather, end-user demand remains sluggish. Although market transactions have improved, overall activity remains weak.

Analysts believe that in the short term, the firm performance of raw material prices such as coke will effectively limit the downside for steel prices. Supported by cost underpinning and market sentiment, construction steel prices are expected to continue their volatile but strengthening trend. However, weak demand and inventory pressure remain the main factors suppressing the rebound momentum of steel prices, limiting the upside potential.