en.Wedoany.com Reported - Goldman Sachs has lowered its average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2027 to $80 per barrel, citing strong supply growth and persistently weak demand, but the bank also warned that oil prices could experience significant volatility under different geopolitical scenarios.

Goldman Sachs noted that production is rising in the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates, while the demand structure is also shifting, particularly in China. In a report, the bank stated that assuming China's transition to alternative energy sources (such as electric vehicles) accelerates, slightly more than 10% of the demand weakness will persist.

Goldman Sachs still expects Brent crude to average $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, and noted that the impact of a prolonged supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has so far been offset by a smaller-than-expected supply gap. Although the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz initially led to a significant decline in liquid fuel production in the Middle East, Goldman Sachs said that due to weak demand and previous supply surpluses cushioning the shock, the global gap in the second quarter was more limited, estimated at 5 million to 6 million barrels per day.

The bank said it now assumes that oil exports from Gulf producers will return to normal by the end of August (previously expected by the end of June), which, given current shipping diversions, could bring Strait of Hormuz transit volumes to 70% of pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs highlighted upside risks for oil prices. In an adverse scenario, if export disruptions last longer, Brent crude could average slightly above $110 by the end of 2026; in a more severe scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues throughout the year, oil prices could reach $140 in 2027. On the downside, faster normalization of supply and weak demand could push oil prices to around $70 by the end of 2026 and $60 in 2027.

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