en.Wedoany.com Reported - Zimbabwe's large-scale gold mine output is on track for its first annual increase since 2023, with delivery data for the first five months of 2026 already surpassing the same period in 2025. According to data from Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR), large-scale gold miners delivered 5.23 metric tons of gold from January to May 2026, up approximately 13.6% from 4.60 tons in the same period of 2025. In full-year 2025, the sector delivered 11.8 tons, the lowest annual total since 2022.
The start of 2026 was strong. Large-scale gold mine output fell 10.5% year-on-year to 808.4 kg in January, but monthly deliveries subsequently recovered steadily. Deliveries rose to 1,105.3 kg in March, up 14% from the same month in 2025; reached 1,213.9 kg in April, a 28.3% year-on-year increase; and remained largely stable at 1,210.3 kg in May, up 22.2% year-on-year.
The production recovery is mainly driven by stronger gold prices, with major miners also benefiting from access to higher-grade ore, new capital investments, and a relatively stable operating environment. Gold prices are expected to average between $4,600 and $5,000 per ounce in 2026, helping to improve gold companies' profit margins. Caledonia Mining Corp.'s Blanket Mine has a guidance of 72,000 to 76,500 ounces for this year, with higher-grade ore expected in the second half. Kuvimba Mining House has allocated $54 million for equipment upgrades at its gold assets, including the Freda Rebecca, Shamva, and Jena mines.
Unlike artisanal gold mining, large-scale mines largely avoided policy disruptions earlier this year. In March 2026, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe required small-scale miners to receive 10% of their gold payments in local currency, leading to a 30.8% month-on-month decline in artisanal deliveries, with some operators halting production. The central bank suspended the measure in early April, restoring full foreign currency payments. During this period, large-scale gold miners retained their usual 70% foreign currency retention threshold and were not affected.
Artisanal and small-scale miners remain the main source of Zimbabwe's gold output. In 2025, this sector accounted for nearly 75% of Zimbabwe's record 46.7 tons of gold production. Artisanal miner deliveries rebounded strongly in May, rising 29.9% year-on-year to 2,744.2 kg. Current trends indicate a significant recovery in large-scale mining. Based on year-to-date performance and producer guidance, full-year 2026 deliveries are expected to be between 14.5 and 15.5 tons, representing a 23% to 31% increase from 11.8 tons in 2025.
To reach the lower end of this range, average monthly deliveries from June to December would need to be approximately 1,325 kg, slightly above the levels seen in April and May; reaching the upper end would require monthly deliveries of about 1,468 kg. Further growth could come from new projects under development. The Dokwe gold project in Matabeleland North, owned by Ariana Resources, has proven and probable reserves of 1.13 million ounces and is designed for an annual production capacity of up to 100,000 ounces (approximately 3.1 tons). A final feasibility study is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2027, with production targeted to begin by the end of 2026 or early 2027.
Seasonal factors may also support output in the coming months. The second half of the year typically sees stronger industrial output, drier operating conditions improve mining activities, and expansion projects accelerate. With gold prices remaining high and major producers maintaining their guidance, Zimbabwe's large-scale gold mining sector is poised for its first annual production increase since 2023.
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